Bettors like Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers

Bears are a popular pick to win Week 1

Bears are a popular pick to win Week 1
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Going into Week 1 of the NFL season, the weakest teams are the Houston Texans (+7), the New York Jets (+6.5), the Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) and the Chicago Bears (+6.5). When it comes to betting, if someone were interested in picking one of these teams, you’d think they’d pick the spread. Any team that is predicted to lose more than one touchdown is definitely a much weaker team, so picking them to win outright would be downright stupid, wouldn’t it? Well, based on how the bettors have bet the Bears-49ers game, that assumption is wrong.

From August 30 to September 6, 75% of bets on that game selected Chicago to win outright. Only 25 people chose Niners. Now, there are a few factors at play. The most obvious is the reward for picking the outright winner in this game. The bettors will obviously tend to pick the team that wins the most money if they win. With the Bears being underestimated by 6.5 points, the bonus if they go away with a win will be quite large. Why would you spend $100 betting on the 49ers where you only win about $135 while a $100 bet on the Bears can bring you $360? The difference between the potential payouts is a big factor in the minds of bettors.

Second, bettors don’t seem ready to believe Trey Lance. Based on OddsChecker US Spokesman Kyle Newman, “Only a small sample size with Trey Lance at this time makes bettors uncomfortable putting money into the 49ers on the road. Lance could very well develop into his own this season and become a star, it’s just a matter of whether he’s ready for Week 1. The bets aren’t buying it, so they’re backing Fields and Bears. “

There’s no denying that Fields could be the better quarterback between the two, but we’ve yet to see that breakout performance from Fields to assume Fields has the X-factor that could make him a superstar. . Lance hasn’t done that either, and Fields already has much more real-life NFL experience than Lance. That combined with the fact that 49ers tight star George Kittle will likely miss the action in Week 1 which means that bettors are seeing the potential for a big payout.

While I trust Chicago’s defense will give the 49ers’ outfield run some some fit – they have a fast number seven front with lots of great savers – the 49ers’ passing attack will be able to lead them to victory if Trey Lance can perform at a level close to what we saw from Jimmy Garoppolo last season. That’s a big if However. Theoretically, Lance provides a much larger arm and explosive chance that the Niners never had against Jimmy G. Lance’s accuracy and sense of game remain in question, however. When Lance got his chance to play last year, we sometimes saw him pocketing too early and running the ball on his own instead of keeping his eyes on the pitch and trying to prolong games. We’ve seen glimpses (lots of them; Lance often looks down the field until he’s completely crossed the boundaries of the script) of improvement in that area over Lance in the season. pre-season, but the pre-season and the regular seasonal action game are two completely different beasts.

With that said, both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk should be healthy for this game, and they outclass most of the Bears’ secondary on their own. As long as Lance can get them the ball, which Kyle Shanahan’s gameplan should make rather easy, then the Bears’ defense will have a very difficult time stopping the 49ers’ offense even without Kittle.

If the Bears want to win, it’s going to come down to two things: The Bears’ defense limiting the 49ers’ run game and Justin Fields taking advantage of a beat-up and underwhelming 49ers’ secondary. Outside of Darnell Mooney and maybe Cole Kmet, Fields won’t have much help in that second department. He is talented enough to make tight-window throws, but without the lack of a true No. 2 receiver (or a proven No. 1 for that matter), Charvarius Ward and Emmanuel Moseley could cause some issues for Fields.

Look, I’m all for going big or going home at your local sportsbook, and based on the unknowns surrounding Trey Lance, I don’t think betting on the Bears is that bad a decision. That said, for 75 percent of bettors to think that’s a wise decision seems a little suspicious. Either they know something I don’t or they looked at the Bears’ +260 line and started salivating, dropping their credit cards on the table instantly without thinking it through. The difference between bets placed on each team should be much closer in my opinion. Then again, I said that for the Bills-Rams game on Thursday and the Bills’ bettors proved me wrong.

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