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China’s July export growth cools, imports likely to rise: Reuters poll


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Containers are seen at Yangshan Deep Water Port in Shanghai, China October 19, 2020. REUTERS / Aly Song / File Photo

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s export growth is expected to slow in July, adding to signs of weakening global demand, while imports may pick up slightly, a poll of Reuters showed on Friday.

Exports likely jumped 15.0% last month from a year earlier, narrowing from a 17.9% gain in June, according to the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 20 economists. .

“Ultimate demand for Chinese goods is now softening,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics.

Export momentum is likely to decline further in the coming months, with China’s official factory survey in July signaling a drop in orders.

“The strong export growth of the past two years is indeed behind us and will decelerate over the next few quarters as the major developed economies enter a recession amid a more synchronized global slowdown.” “, Nomura said in a note.

The poll showed imports likely increased 3.7% in July from a year ago, higher than the 1.0% increase in June, partly driven by infrastructure investment.

“China’s import dynamics are (expected) to increase in the second half of the year, supported by demand for machinery, equipment and goods related to investment in infrastructure and strategic sectors.” strategy,” analysts at Oxford Economics said in a note.

In July, 3,876 major projects began construction, with a total investment of 2.4 trillion yuan ($355.25 billion), the Securities Times said on Thursday.

With the economy reeling from a sharp COVID-induced downturn in the second quarter, authorities are doubling down on their infrastructure push, casting aside an old playbook to support the economy, pledging 800 billion yuan in new credit quotas to finance large projects.

China’s trade surplus may have narrowed to $90 billion in July from a record high of $97.94 billion in June.

Trade data will be released on Sunday.

(1 dollar = 6.7559 yuan)

(Poll compiled by Devayani Sathyan and Jing Wang; Reporting by Liangping Gao, Ellen Zhang and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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