This is a transcribed excerpt of the “Bitcoin Magazine Podcast,” hosted by P and Q. In this episode, Greg Foss joins them to talk about how owning bitcoin is a major asymmetric transaction. history and why bitcoin might be worth $2 million in today’s value.
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Greg Foss: [Discussing the current state of the U.S. Treasury bond market.] Japan is dumping it. Russia is dumping it. China is divesting from US Treasuries. So who’s there to buy it? I guess Treasuries can buy their own bonds. What does it mean? QE (quantitative easing) infinity. Hence, bitcoin. You see that? Looks pretty simple guys. Don’t think too much about this; Play odds, play probability.
I can figure out why bitcoin should someday trade for more than $2 million in today’s dollars per bitcoin, based on that thesis. But again, it’s probabilistic analysis. It is sitting in a risk chair. It’s about coming up with different scenarios and then putting your money in the one with the greatest expected value. This does not mean that it has the greatest probability, but rather that the chance of happening, multiplied by the price that happens when it happens, and the expected value is the most chance. That’s why I think bitcoin is the biggest asymmetric trading opportunity I’ve seen in my professional hedging. I’m not 100% sure. But I’m fairly confident that at $20,000 per bitcoin, it represents an amazing asymmetric opportunity.