India registered 8.7% growth in the period 2021-22.
“We continue to sustain to meet 7.4%. We expect it to. This doesn’t really reflect what is expected to be the year-to-date reality. GDP growth. So 7-7.5% in that range. 7.4% was what the IMF had predicted, “Secretary of Finance TV Somanathan said on Wednesday.
He told reporters after the release of GDP figures, which showed the economy grew 13.5% in the April-June quarter, much lower than the RBI’s forecast of 16.2%. .
“I wouldn’t make a more accurate prediction than the RBI … but I would say today’s numbers don’t derail us or what was expected and what we continue to expect. It That’s perfectly in line with that expectation of somewhere in the region 7-7.5% real GDP growth. It’s perfectly in line with that,” he said.
So, according to him, this is very much in line with the annual estimates of international institutions as well as those of the Reserve Bank of India.
RBI has forecast a growth rate of 7.2% for the current financial year.
He also added that real GDP continued to grow to Rs 36.85 thousand in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022-23, recording a year-on-year increase of 13.5% and growth of 3.8%. compared to the first quarter of the financial year 2019-20.
With a growth rate of 13.5%, GDP has recovered its pre-pandemic output and is far ahead of nearly 4%, he said.
Share your views on the latest GDP data, Economy Minister Ajay Seth said that contact- and construction-intensive services saw year-on-year growth of 25.7% and 16.8% respectively in the first quarter of 2022-23.
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP (in 2011-12 prices) stood at 34.7%, the highest in the first quarter of the past 10 years, supported by numerous reforms and measures by the Government. government leads Seth for more on the revival of the investment cycle and the attraction of private investment.
The government has continued to support investment activity with capital expenditure reaching Rs 1.75 lakh crore in the first quarter of 2022-23, equal to 23.4% of the budget estimate and 57% higher than the same period in the same period. last year. , he say.
He added: “Fixed capital formation and private consumption grew very strongly in the first quarter and that bodes well for the economy.
With relatively high growth and low inflation, India, among its major peers, faces little trade-off between growth and inflation, Seth said.
India’s Retail Inflation (CPI-C) fell to a 5-month low of 6.71% in July 2022.
Regarding the second quarter outlook, he said the strong performance of the High Frequency indicators in July and August 2022 suggests sustained growth in the July-September period.
The manufacturing PMI for July 2022 was at an eight-month high of 56.4, supported by growth in output and new business orders. Services activity also remained strong in the expanded region in July 2022 with a services PMI of 55.5, he said.
Total bank credit and non-food credit continued to double-digit growth in July 2022 from Q1/FY 2022-23, with indicators recording growth rates of 13.4% and 13, respectively. .9%, due to increased credit flows to industry and services, he noted.
In a gust of wind Indian Economy In the second half of the year, slowing exports and higher crude prices will be major challenges, Seth said.
However, Somanathan said, rising interest rates may not deter capital investment by the private sector.
The Finance Minister said that India’s private sector is not sensitive to interest rates, adding 75-100 basis points may not deter private investment.
Regarding the impact of the expected regulation on the Chinese economy, Somanathan said it is such a large economy and its downturn will affect every economy that deals with the giant. Asian giant.
“India has substantial trade with China but this is a case where our trade deficit works in our favor as we are a net importer and not an exporter. So unlike other countries In other countries, China’s slowdown is less likely to affect our exports because we are really big.