Update: The percentage of home prices falling in your local housing market, as shown by an interactive map
Unlike the stock market, which adjusts through price changes, housing corrections have historically been most acutely felt through a drop in housing activity. Of course, that’s why Mortgage interest rates spike is turning into a sharp drop in both now available and new house for sale.
That said, it’s increasingly clear that fix this house will not be felt through the decline in housing activity. The Housing adjustments also put downward pressure on house priceswith many markets have fallen into fix house price.
To better understand where that can lead to house prices, Luck reached out to CoreLogic to see if the company would provide us with their updated October review of the nation’s largest regional housing markets. To determine the likelihood of home price declines in the area, CoreLogic Factors assessed such as earnings growth forecasts, unemployment projections, consumer confidence, debt-to-income ratios, affordability, mortgage rates, and inventory levels. CoreLogic then ranks the housing market in the region into one of five categories, grouped by the likelihood that home prices in that particular market will decline between August 2022 and August 2023. The group that the real estate research firm used for its October analysis:
- Very high: More than 70% discount chance
- Tall: 50% –70% chance
- Medium: 40% –50% chance
- Short: 20% -40% chance
- Very low: 0% -20% chance
From August 2022 to August 2023, CoreLogic predicts national home prices poised to rise by 3.2%. That said, CoreLogic’s forecasting model estimates a large number of countries are at risk of falling home prices.
Of the 392 regional housing markets CoreLogic measures, market zero currently has a “very low” percentage of home prices falling over the next year. Another 18 housing markets are in the “low” category and 39 are in the “medium” category. Meanwhile, CoreLogic puts 97 markets in the “high” category and 238 markets in the “very high” odds camp.
This October assessment found that 335 markets have a more than 50% chance of recording negative numbers year-on-year (i.e. markets in the “high” or “very high”) risk category over the next 12 months. In August, only 125 markets had more than a 50% chance of falling home prices. In Julythere are 98 markets at risk. In June45 markets at risk. In the Mayonly 26 markets fall into “high” or “very high” risk camps.
Clear trajectoryHouse prices are falling.
There are two main reasons why CoreLogic’s outlook continues to decline. 1. Housing data, included in the forecast model, continues to weaken as housing affordability declines. 2. House prices have fallen in many markets.
Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic, said: “With a number of markets having posted monthly declines since this year’s peak, the likelihood of a year-over-year decline will also increase in the month. 8″. Fortunee.
Where do house prices fall fastest? The biggest declines are happening in the West Coast, Southwest and Western Mountain markets.
“Markets that have reported monthly declines are typically concentrated in the West and West Mountains, particularly in Washington, Idaho, California, Utah, Colorado, Oregon, Montana, Nevada and Arizona, and have seen levels relatively larger price increases since the start of the pandemic,” said Hepp.
The most obvious home price adjustment can be found in either group. The first group includes high-cost tech hubs like Seattle and San Jose. Not only are the luxury housing markets more rate sensitive, but so are their tech sectors. The second group is foggy housing markets like Austin, Boise and Phoenix. Those frigid markets, which see home values far exceed what local income can support in time The pandemic housing boom, reach a level where local incomes are struggling to support.
Hungry for more housing data? Follow me on Twitter in @NewsLambert.
Register Fortune feature email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews and surveys.
